[Alpacasite] Alpaca industry future & tap dancing???

Ok, light up your flame throwers. I've donned my flameproof suit!
But, before you fire, please read this ENTIRE post... Thanks, in
advance for the barbque!

I read, with interest, John's recent posts regarding the future of
the alpaca industry. I read, with interest, Steve's counterpoints.
I read, with disgust, the attacks on people like the Romaniks, AOBA,
non-AOBA members, etc., and the words of some who seem to live in a
small mutual amiration society. I read, with curiosity, Sonda's
recent post as she attempted to open a dialogue....only to have it
thrown back in her face. I repeatedly read, with disdain, the posts
of people who seem to have their heads in some kind of a vision
fantasy and who continue to repeat the 'isn't it great' mantras or
the veiled personal attacks ad nauseum. Visions are fine, fantasies
are fun, personal affronts are unproductive.... but businesses must
have direction in order to turn visions into long term realities.
With all the reading, I thought I would toss in another 2 cents
worth.

Good people, it seems to me that this 'industry' is approaching a
crossroad. Currently, the business is heavily weighted in favor of
those who been able to enrich themselves by promoting alpacas for
the sake of alpacas and inducing others to join in. That is, they
focus on making money in this business by promoting the sale of
animals. Nothing wrong with that because at this point it still
*is* a breeder's market. However, good points made by people about
the FUTURE and their perspectives seem to be continuously swept
under the carpet by many who post here and elsewhere. Why is that?
Personalities? Egos? Shortsightedness? I don't really know. I do
know something about business.. and any industry that limits itself
and stops growing and looking for new avenues is a business that's
dying. Ask the newspaper 'industry'!

Present reality seems to be that this business can either become a
production industry or a show industry... or some balance between
the two. While AOBA and many alpaca owners may have done a great
job of getting people involved in owning alpacas, there is still a
lot of work to be done on longer term growth of the industry at many
differing levels of involvement. Given the exponential herd growth
(not just in the US, but worldwide), it seems that there will be
much more room for people and alpacas in the former arena
(production) than in the latter (show n sell) at some point in the
near future. There's only so much room and/or capital for the show
n sell aspect of alpacas. Again, nothing inherently wrong with
either direction, but one area may be much larger than the other in
the long run.

I have no problem with either approach to the business, however it
only appears reasonable that at some point there must be a shift in
emphasis to the fiber (production) end of things. To that end, we
have some SERIOUS problems or should I say challenges. Below, you
will find some hard, cold facts about alpaca fiber production. The
value of raw fiber on the world market is MISERABLE! If we are
going to expand into a production business (that is if we are going
to keep the business open to a large segment of people who want in),
folks in this business must make some serious mental adjustments and
grab hold of some reality. Take a look at what is happining to our
farm friends in Austrialia. Then ask yourself, why did you have to
go to Austrialia to 'get the facts'. Here are the links to some hard
facts of life:

http://www.australianalpacafleece.com.au/services.asp

Take a look at all three PDF files.
(NOTE: 1 AUD = 0.747445 USD, so multiply those prices by 0.747)

With all that said, it's time we began to take a serious look at
where we want to go (both individually and as an industry) and begin
NOW to take steps toward that end. John M. and the AFCNA are doing
some good work in that direction. AOBA is probably doing so as well
(though their main focus is more toward the show n sell end of
things). We really must look at where the fleece business is and
where it can be taken. In an era of synthetic materials, it's going
to take a strong effort to get the word out about the values of
natural fibers and in particular alpaca fiber.

Though I may not like it, I have admit that John has a very valid
point... We need to plan as if the 'average' alpaca is something
less than a $20,000 money machine. Balloons can only expand so far
before they burst or are filled to capacity! So we need to begin
planning for the eventuality that our 'not so perfect' alpacas are
worth something less than that on average, and we must begin to
SERIOUSLY focus on the fiber and production values in our
businesses. I am NOT an advocate that a 'farm store' is the
answer. That is, in my not so humble opinion, small thinking. Not
to mention it could result in a lot of capital tied up in bags in
the closet. I doubt that many people with a business backgound who
wanted into the retail trade would select an alpaca farm store as
the place to put their money. No, we need to begin thinking on a
national and international scale. Where and how can real,
substantial markets for our fleece (and the interim and end products
of that fleece) be created, sustained and supported by those who
raise alpacas.

I only hope that diagloge in these matters can move beyond the
shortsightedness of tap dancing around hard issues with platitudes
and can begin to result in ideas that will not leave many of us
wondering what we are going to do with all our fleece and/or animals
at some future point in time. Enough with 'visions' and 'dreams'
and 'mutual admiration societies' and 'singlar
degradation'...Business is business, and sometimes business must
make hard decisions and changes in direction to remain growing and
viable. Let's talk about opportunities to grow the production end
of our industry into something that the rest of the world can look
at and appreciate.

Ok... let the cook out begin! <lol>

Kevin
CLF Alpacas
Elk County Kansas
(Corner of Middle and Nowhere, cuz no expert mentioned that we
needed a retail location for a farm store!)

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