alpacas: RE: [Alpacasite] Fiber Industry and the Future Alpaca Industry

First, to everyone who responded publicly and privately, thank you so much!
One thing that is drawing me to this business is the same element that drew
me to the wine business, there really seems to be a sense of openness and
cooperation that you don't find in most businesses. I appreciate the
candor, wisdom, and humor. I am continuing my path, with eyes a bit clearer
thanks to everyone's responses.

I look forward to announcing, "The first additions to Alpaca's of Namaste
Hill have arrived" in the near future!

Sincerely,

Chris Miller

Namaste Vineyards

5600 Van Well Road, Dallas, Oregon 97338

Phone: 503-623-4150

Fax: 503-212-0117

www.namastevineyards.com

"The Spirit of the Wine Honors the Spirit of the Vine."

-----Original Message-----
From: Alpacasite@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Alpacasite@yahoogroups.com] On
Behalf Of John Robinson
Sent: Wednesday, December 07, 2005 10:32 AM
To: Alpacasite@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Alpacasite] Fiber Industry and the Future Alpaca Industry

Hi Chris and All,

I would like to offer you my opinion regarding some of the questions
you asked Chris. First, to give you some insight into my background,
I have been involved with breeding camelids for over 15 years. I
started with llamas when I was 20 years old. After selling all of my
llamas, I began breeding alpacas five years ago. Because, of my llama
background and having travelled down that road, I used all of the
experience I had acquired to evaluate the alpaca industry and whether
or not it was destined to go down the same path as the llama
industry. After asking some key questions, I had concluded that the
alpaca industry was a viable and solid livestock industry. In fact, I
had investigated other businesses. I had educated myself about how a
business becomes successful, as well as, how wealth is acquired. I
even compared the alpaca industry to the Stock Market, which I still
do today, and concluded that there was nothing better! Nothing, that
was legal anyway! LOL!

The facts are....1)The alpaca industry has a closed registry....2)At
that time the alpaca industry held an average sale price of $19,000-
$21,000 for 13 years!...3)Today the demand is far greater than the
supply... 4)National alpaca sale prices are up!...5)Alpaca breeders
view their farms and herds as a business, not just elite
collections...6) AOBA has an extremely successful marketing plan that
promotes alpaca to the public...7) There are lots of other reasons
the alpaca industry is successful and solid, too many to list, but
you get the idea.

There will always be a demand for high-end breeding stock, as well
as, fiber geldings. It's a symbiotic relationship. There are a lot of
serious fiber connoisseurs involved in every aspect of the alpaca
industry, from breeding to retail. The alpaca will always be
recognized as an elite fiber producer. As more of us develop our
fiber businesses, off our farms or through cooperatives, so will the
textile industry. As demand grows, so will the prices. Supply and
demand is what makes any business successful.

The high prices we've been seeing recently for breeding stock are
just the beginning. When someone posted asking how these prices are
justified for individual alpacas, I was surprised that noone
mentioned the fact that a male or female purchased for breeding is
worth far more than that individual alone. The fact is that a female
will produce as many as 8-15 offspring over her life time and a stud
is worth 50% of an entire herd. At a conservative average price of
$20,000 for each female offspring you can see why these high-end
animals sell for so much. We have always had females listed for sale
priced at $100,000-$150,000 and that was at 50% of what I felt they
were really worth to me. A female can easily be worth $250,000 of
production over her life time. This doesn't even go into compounding
the offspring's offspring and their offspring, etc. As far as, males
are concerned, they are 50% of the genetic make-up of all their
offspring. If I have a herd of 20 females and I breed him to those
females, which have 10 females a year on average, that sell for
$20,000 a piece on average, you can see how even a small farm can
justify such an acquisition. These numbers can be adjusted to each
farms average sale prices,of course, but they are still viable
formulas. The bottom line is that each of these high-end purchases as
well as any purchase in breeding stock is an investment in the
offspring that these animals will produce.

I too live in Oregon and now have a herd of 150 strong. I have both
huacayas and suris, as well as, suri llamas and show llamas. I
started small and worked hard for everything that I have today. I can
honestly tell you that the alpaca industry is one of the most
rewarding businesses to be in and has only improved, since I have
been involved in it. We've reached our 5th Anniversary and are very
close to celebrating our sale marker of $1,000, 000! Everywhere I
look right now everyone involved in this business is delighted and
sometimes amazed how this industry is evolving. It still is a new and
exciting industry, with an excellent foundation and a very bright
future for us all!

IMHO,

John Robinson
HR ALPACAS & SURI LLAMAS
OR

On Dec 7, 2005, at 7:41 AM, Alpacasite@yahoogroups.com wrote:

> OK, I have been lurking for quite some time now. I am interested
> in the
> business, mainly because I have the available land, I love the
> animals, and
> I love the idea of having the possibility of another income
> source. I have
> been to seminars, had farm visits, picked animals, I think I want to
> specialize in Suri's. Every person I have talked to in the
> business talks
> about the importance of the fiber market, and that is the goal for the
> industry. Who would know better about the truth of this statement
> than the
> Director of the Fiber Cooperative? Do people in the industry
> disagree with
> the numbers given by Mr Merrill, or is it the grim truth? I
> understand
> everyone on this list has something to lose if this is in fact the
> truth,
> and that would cause for some defensiveness to his statements, but
> for an
> industry that prides itself on integrity shouldn't this be addressed
> truthfully with people like me, potential buyers?
>
>
>
> Not one person in the industry has given this opinion to me about
> the future
> of the fiber market. Am I to assume that alpacas are a fad
> livestock and
> change my business plan to get in, make as many sales as possible
> to recoup
> my investment, and try to do this all the while without using the
> future of
> the fiber market as a selling point, instead of slow growth, high
> quality
> breeding, and focused marketing?
>
>
>
> I am confused and concerned. Please feel free to contact me
> privately if
> needed, but I would like to hear other opinions.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> Chris
>
>
>
> Chris Miller
>
> Namaste Vineyards
>
> 5600 Van Well Road, Dallas, Oregon 97338
>
> Phone: 503-623-4150
>
> Fax: 503-212-0117

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Thursday, December 08, 2005

RE: [Alpacasite] Fiber Industry and the Future Alpaca Industry

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