Re: [Alpacasite] Getting more people into the alpaca business...

Hi,
I, too, don't quite understand the 10 to 2 ratio. Also,
just a very non-technical survey of one group of alpaca people a few
years ago had about 4 out of 15 who were in the process of building a
new house. That alone shows we aren't very typical as only a tiny,
tiny, percentage of the population build houses. AOBA may have some
demographics which would be enlightening.

A number of the original alpaca farms have left the business
in the last few years. You might get help from AOBA to identify them
and do a survey of why they left the business. But It seems to me at
the rate we are getting new people, it might not be a problem. We
have more than doubled the size of AOBA in the last four years and
that doesn't even count those who don't belong to AOBA.

So, John, is AFCNA working on plans to keep us from
imploding? It's going to have to be someone other than AOBA or ARI I
think as both those bodies can barely keep head above water with
current requirements.

Cheers,
Jan Sherrill
Celestial Alpacas
Central Coast of California
Templeton
805/238-2628

>In a message dated 11/25/05 10:24:01 AM Central Standard Time,
>patrickspastures@verizon.net writes:
>
>> For every 2 established farms leaving the industry, we are going to have to
>> find 10 new entrees. Most likely, the largest portion of the 'newbees' will
>> be in the 30 - 45 year old age group with a couple for kids still at home
>> and with limited liquid assets. My feeling is for every 10 newbees, here's
>> what the fallout might look like within 5 years:
>> a.. 4 - 5 of the 10 will cease doing businesses due to divorce (the
>> national average)
>> b.. 1.5 will have to take care of older parent or relatives, a partner or
>> themselves due to illness and not have time for the animals
>> c.. .5 will have financial issues and liquidate
>> d.. .5 will lose interest and fire sale
>> This means only about 2 will make it past the 5 year mark....or that for
>> every 2 current alpaca business that have been around more than 5
>>years and have
>> to leave the business, that we will need 10 replacements just to stay even.
>>
>
>Not necessarily disagreeing with your numbers but I have a couple of
>questions;
>1) How do you arrive at 10 replacement owners for every two leaving?
>2) Are items A through D representative of alpaca owners? Is it
>statistically appropriate to take national averages and apply them
>to a very, very small
>segment of the population?
>
>Elden Harms
>Token Creek Alpacas LLC
>Sun Prairie WI
>
>Looking for superior customer service? Lean on Token Creek Alpacas, you'll
>be well supported.
>
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--
Jan Sherrill
Celestial Alpacas
Central Coast of California
Templeton
mailto:pacamom@lightspeed.net

805/238-2628

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