[Alpacasite] Getting more people into the alpaca business...

I throw this subject to the group for discussion...and to think about...this is not a political item. I am looking at our industry as a strategic planner and sociologist specializing in demographics.

Over the next few years a number of our current alpaca farms and ranches will leave the industry due to a single item...old age.

For every 2 established farms leaving the industry, we are going to have to find 10 new entrees. Most likely, the largest portion of the 'newbees' will be in the 30 - 45 year old age group with a couple for kids still at home and with limited liquid assets. My feeling is for every 10 newbees, here's what the fallout might look like within 5 years:
a.. 4 - 5 of the 10 will cease doing businesses due to divorce (the national average)
b.. 1.5 will have to take care of older parent or relatives, a partner or themselves due to illness and not have time for the animals
c.. .5 will have financial issues and liquidate
d.. .5 will lose interest and fire sale
This means only about 2 will make it past the 5 year mark....or that for every 2 current alpaca business that have been around more than 5 years and have to leave the business, that we will need 10 replacements just to stay even.

Our U.S. herd is growing fast as so is the number of older alpacas. Recycling the current herd is very important to not flooding the market with alpacas that can not be sold. Finding buyers for new or yet to be born alpacas needs to be of interest to all of us...this includes fiber boys. If we continue to sell the majority of animals only to the current farms and ranches, there will be a limit to how many alpacas many farms or ranches can financially or physically absorb.

WE SHOULD NOT BE BREEDING LOW QUALITY MALES OR FEMALES FOR SURE...but we need to find homes for the medium quality females and gelded males. The high end females and males seems to find their place in the current market place with no problem and are doing so at very high prices.

The issue here is that if this industry is going to grow long term, that we need more new farms and ranches. If we don't address this issue, we could see a glut of alpacas at prices much lower than the current prices or sent to animal auctions for disposal or worse.

Your thoughts?

Jim Patrick
Patricks' Pastures Alpaca Ranch & Habitat
3030 N. Trinity Rd.
Denton, TX 76208
940-323-1011 (Ranch Office)
214-505-0754 (Jim Patrick's Mobile)
patrickspastures@verizon.net
www.patrickspastures.com
----- Original Message -----
From: sldear2001
To: Alpacasite@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 24, 2005 8:10 PM
Subject: [Alpacasite] The llama song

I just listened to the song again.
Still love it.

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